23 Países Más Próximos a Default

En este momento, la deuda soberana es la principal preocupación para muchos inversores e instituciones financieras sobre la salud de sus carteras.
La exposición a cualquiera de estos países puede ser una amenaza de riesgo que usted o su banco está ignorando, a medida que aumenta la presión sobre los países a seguir los presupuestos de austeridad y reducir la deuda.
CMA Datavision, ha compilado una lista de los países más propensos a incumplir, clasificados por CPD (probabilidad acumulada de incumplimiento). Esta calificación es independiente de CDS, pero se relaciona de cerca, y basándose en la volatilidad y el precio de ese producto.

Este informe, es un dato alarmante y preocupante sobre la visión y perspectiva que tienen sobre Argentina.

Que Opinan?

23: Kazakhstan

Cumulative Probability of Default: 14.9%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 223.8
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bbb+
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bbb+
Source: CMA Datavision

22: El Salvador

Cumulative Probability of Default: 14.9%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 223.8
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bbb+
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb+
Source: CMA Datavision

21: Italy

Cumulative Probability of Default: 15.5%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 190.1
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bbb
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): a
Source: CMA Datavision

20: Vietnam

Cumulative Probability of Default: 16.8%  
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 256.7
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bbb-
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb
Source: CMA Datavision

19: Lithuania

Cumulative Probability of Default: 18.2%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 282.7
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb+
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bbb-
Source: CMA Datavision

18: Dominican Republic

Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.4%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 295.9
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb-
Source: CMA Datavision

17: Lebanon

Cumulative Probability of Default: 20.5%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 318.3
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb
Source: CMA Datavision

16: Croatia

Cumulative Probability of Default: 20.5%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 321.6
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bbb
Source: CMA Datavision

15: Spain

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Cumulative Probability of Default: 20.7%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 264.7
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): a
Source: CMA Datavision

14: Ireland

Cumulative Probability of Default: 20.8%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 266.5
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bbb+
Source: CMA Datavision

13: Hungary

Cumulative Probability of Default: 21.5%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 341.6
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bbb+
Source: CMA Datavision

12: Bulgaria

Cumulative Probability of Default: 22.5%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 357.2
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb-
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bbb
Source: CMA Datavision

11: Iceland

Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.2%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 329.8
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb-
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb-
Source: CMA Datavision

10: Latvia

Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.5%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 378.6
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb-
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb-
Source: CMA Datavision

9: Portugal

Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.6%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 310.3
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb-
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bbb+
Source: CMA Datavision

8: Romania

Cumulative Probability of Default: 25.4%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 410.7
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): bb-
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bbb
Source: CMA Datavision

7: Iraq

Cumulative Probability of Default: 29.0%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 476.5
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): b+
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): b+
Source: CMA Datavision

6: Dubai

Cumulative Probability of Default: 29.5%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 495.2
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): b+
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): b+
Source: CMA Datavision

5: Ukraine

Cumulative Probability of Default: 35.7%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 624.6
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): b
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): b
Source: CMA Datavision

4: Pakistan

Cumulative Probability of Default: 39.0%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 719.0
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): b
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): b-
Source: CMA Datavision

3: Argentina

Cumulative Probability of Default: 48.0%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 967.1
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): ccc+
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): ccc+
Source: CMA Datavision

2: Greece

Cumulative Probability of Default: 53.0%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 934.3
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): ccc
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb-
Source: CMA Datavision

1: Venezuela

Cumulative Probability of Default: 58.4%
Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1295.6
CMA Implied Rating (June 29): ccc-
CMA Implied Rating (Q1): ccc+
Source: CMA Datavision